Dry and wet events in Mar Chiquita: Water Response and Climate Change
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30972/fac.3427791Keywords:
Climate variability, Climate change consequences, Coastal water bodiesAbstract
The aim of this study was to assess dry and wet periods in the Mar Chiquita district (Buenos Aires, Argentina) during the 1950-2023 period and under different climate change scenarios to identify the impacts on water coverage and evaluate the scenarios that the region might face in the Near, Medium, and Long Term. For this purpose, series of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were studied at different temporal scales: monthly, seasonal, and annual. With these analyses, extreme events characterized by their intensity, periodicity, frequency, and duration were identified. Subsequently, the impacts of these events were assessed, considering different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP4.5, SSP7.0, and SSP8.5). The results showed that until 2023, a total of 11 dry events and 14 wet events occurred. The intensity of extremely dry periods was higher (SPEI = -1.87) than the extremely wet ones (SPEI = 1.79). The frequency of the former was 11 years and their periodicity 6.5 years, while for the wet periods, it was 13.8 years and 5.2 years, respectively. The most prolonged and intense events occurred in 2008-2009 (23 months) and 2016-2017 (16 months). In future scenarios, severe and extreme dry events were identified, while wet events were mostly moderate and, to a lesser extent, severe. Significant changes were identified in water bodies, with surges towards the northeast affecting coastal cities. This information forms an essential database for designing management plans not only in coastal cities but also in areas with water bodies.
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