Economic analysis of the standing value of Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. in the Chaco region, Argentine Republic, during the period 2003-2021

Abstract

The Chaco region holds the country most extensive reserve of native forests. This study explores how the economic value of Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. evolved between 2003 and 2021, using time series data on prices and incorporating macroeconomic conditions, market structures, and sensitivity scenarios. Official data from the province of Chaco was adapted to reflect regional conditions. Prices were weighted based on the intended industrial transformation, converted to US dollars, and adjusted for inflation using the U.S. Consumer Price Index. The dataset was analyzed through scatterplots, regression models, and cross-correlation to evaluate the impact of official exchange rates and peso devaluation. Results showed sensitivity to both variables, but with time lags. However, the regression models did not provide reliable forecasts for price behavior. Two methods were proposed to estimate discount rates: one based on compound interest and another using logarithmic regression. The resulting rates were comparable to sovereign bonds and served as a foundation for constructing sensitivity scenarios under shifting economic conditions. The study concludes that the value of  standing timber is shaped not only by market dynamics but also by power relations embedded within the forestry supply chain.