Fiscal sustainability indicators in ‘Central Region’: a comparative assessment of Santa Fe, Córdoba and Entre Ríos on period 2007-2024

Abstract

JEL classification codes: (H70) (H72) (H73)

This document aims to provide a comparative analysis of public finances from provinces of Santa Fe, Córdoba, and Entre Ríos, which together make up the Central Region of Argentine Republic. Through examination of various indicators related to revenues, expenditures, fiscal results, and debt, the fiscal sustainability of each jurisdiction is assessed. The study focuses on indicators that define the trajectory of subnational fiscal performance, including: share of provincial taxes in total tax revenues; dependency of revenues on procyclical sources; proportion of capital expenditures within total expenditures; share of total expenditures in Gross Geographic Product (GGP); primary and financial results in relation to current and total revenues; the correlation between fiscal results and financial sources; composition of public debt; its share in the GGP and current revenues; and compliance with legal debt limits. Preliminary findings suggest that, although the three provinces share similar economic and fiscal characteristics, Córdoba is the jurisdiction with the lowest dependence on the National Government, the highest share of capital expenditures in its total spending, and the strongest fiscal performance in both primary and financial terms. Santa Fe shows the highest proportion of revenues linked to the economic cycle and the best debt indicators, both in terms of stock and debt service. Entre Ríos allocates the highest portion of its capital expenditures to Direct Real Investment, shows the largest expenditure share relative to its GGP, and has the lowest share of foreign currency debt in its total debt portfolio. Based on the results obtained from the comparison of sub-sovereign indicators, this study provides useful information for public policies formulation aimed at improving fiscal sustainability and promoting balanced economic development in the Central Region.